LinkedIn data shows AI isn’t to blame for hiring decline… yet
LinkedIn says hiring is down 20% since 2022, but blames higher interest rates — not AI — for the slowdown.
LinkedIn’s Blake Lawit, the chief global affairs and legal officer of the Microsoft-owned professional networking site, confirmed in an interview at the Semafor World Economy summit this week that the company’s data shows a decline in hiring of around 20% since 2022.
However, he pushed back at the idea that AI was to blame.
“At LinkedIn… we have an economic graph which is over a billion members. We’ve got companies, jobs, skills. It’s really an amazing real-time view of what’s happening in the labor market. And we’ve looked — because everyone wants to know the answer to this question: Is AI impacting jobs right now? We’ve looked and, honestly, we haven’t seen it,” he said during his interview.
Instead, the executive suggested that the decline in hiring was more closely tied to a rise in interest rates.
“We have not seen the sort of impacts that you would expect to see in areas that everyone is talking about AI… like industries, whether or not it’s customer support, or administrative, or marketing — all these places that if we were seeing impacts [from] AI that’s where it would be,” Lawit continued.
“Yes, hiring’s down, but not down more,” he added.
Lawit also noted that LinkedIn’s data didn’t indicate that the decline in hiring of college-aged young adults getting their first jobs was “down more,” either, when compared with people who were in the middle of or later in their careers.
Still, he didn’t rule out that things could change.
“Doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen in the future, but not yet.”
On that point, however, Lawit had a warning of sorts. Lawit noted that over the last several years, the skills that are needed to do the average job have changed 25%. With the rise of AI, LinkedIn expects that figure to be 70% by 2030.
“So, even if you’re not changing jobs, your job’s changing on you,” he said.
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Key takeaways
- The hiring slowdown is attributed to economic factors, not AI.
- The skills required for jobs are rapidly changing, with a forecast of 70% by 2030.
- Workforce adaptation and reskilling are essential for the competitiveness of Brazilian companies.
Editorial analysis
LinkedIn's analysis of the hiring slowdown, attributing it to economic factors such as rising interest rates rather than artificial intelligence, is an important indicator for the tech sector in Brazil. While AI is on the rise and its adoption is changing labor market dynamics, the current reality shows that the direct impact on hiring has not yet materialized. For Brazil, where the job market faces its own challenges, this information may provide temporary relief, but it also underscores the need for continuous adaptation of workers' skills.
Moreover, the forecast that the skills required for jobs will change by 70% by 2030 suggests that Brazilian companies must start preparing for this transformation. Upskilling and reskilling the workforce become essential, especially in a country where education and access to technology are still unequal. Companies that do not adapt to this new reality may struggle to maintain their competitiveness.
Finally, it is crucial to observe how the situation evolves in the coming months. The combination of economic factors and the increasing adoption of AI technologies may eventually lead to a significant shift in the job market. Brazil must pay attention to these global trends and prepare its employment and education policies to mitigate potential negative impacts in the future.
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